Market Cap
$1.64T
24h Volume
$34.23B
Dominance
59.3%
How Bitcoin fits into the macro picture
September CPI at 3.7% exceeded forecasts and revived discussion of additional Fed rate hikes, with the next FOMC decision 13 days away on October 28. Bitcoin is trading with a 0.33 correlation to the S&P 500 over the past 90 days, meaning macro forces are a meaningful but not dominant driver. Gold gained 1.28% on the same day Bitcoin fell 2.2%, a split that reflects differing market classifications of the two assets under inflationary stress. BTC is down 9.4% year-to-date while gold's YTD change and the DXY's 5.35% YTD gain suggest the dollar-strength regime has weighed on Bitcoin as a risk asset throughout 2026.
BTC's 90-day correlation to the S&P 500 stands at 0.33, below the 0.7 threshold that would indicate pure tech-beta behavior. Today's simultaneous sell-off in BTC and equities is consistent with that moderate correlation rather than evidence of a tightening relationship.
| Asset | 24h | YTD | BTC Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | -1.11% | +11.24% | -20.64% |
| QQQ | -2.02% | +17.21% | -26.61% |
| XAU | +1.28% | -12.32% |
September CPI hit 3.7%, above forecasts, prompting markets to price multiple Fed rate hikes back into the outlook and sending Bitcoin below $82,000. Bitcoin is behaving as a long-duration risk asset in this regime: rising real yields compress its valuation the same way they compress growth equities, a pattern that has repeated across every Fed tightening episode since 2022.
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| +2.92% |
| DXY | -0.37% | +5.35% | -14.75% |
| ETH | -3.53% | -1.13% | -8.27% |
| SOL | -2.80% | -1.05% | -8.35% |
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