BTC $77,928 (-0.33%)

Today’s Insight

$76,759

24h -0.33%|7d +0.35%

The Move

Bitcoin consolidated near $77,928, down a fraction of a percent on the day and essentially unchanged on the week. Price remains well above its 30-day average, holding near the top of its recent range.

The Signal

The day pulled in two directions: a $201.9 million ETF outflow ended a nine-day inflow run, while Saylor publicly signaled Strategy is back to buying after a two-month pause. Neither signal dominated, which itself is informative about where the balance of supply and demand sits right now.

The Watch

August Jobs Report in 4 days, on September 4. A soft print strengthens the rate-cut case and historically has acted as a tailwind for risk assets including Bitcoin; a hot print could tighten financial conditions and cap any near-term rally.

Market Evidence

Market Cap

$1.56T

24h Volume

$19.89B

BTC Dominance

59.7%

Fear & Greed

62/ 100

Greed

BTC Dominance: Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market capitalisation. Rising dominance means capital is rotating into BTC from altcoins. Fear & Greed: aggregates volatility, momentum, social media, and dominance into a 0-100 sentiment score. Below 25 is historically a buying signal; above 75 a caution signal.

What Happened

The Day in 30 Seconds

Bitcoin is trading 11.80% above its 30-day average price while the S&P 500 is positive year-to-date at 11.14% and the NASDAQ-100 at 15.19%, but Bitcoin remains down 13.41% year-to-date, underperforming both equity indices significantly on an annual basis. The DXY is marginally negative on the day at -0.09%, providing a slight tailwind to dollar-denominated assets. The August Jobs Report in 4 days and CPI in 10 days are the near-term macro variables most likely to move the rate-cut probability that currently underpins risk-asset valuations.

Bitcoin's 90-day rolling correlation with the S&P 500 is 0.28, below the 0.3 threshold that has historically marked a decoupling regime, while its correlation with gold is 0.54. Bitcoin is tracking closer to the monetary-goods basket than the equity-risk basket in the current 90-day window.

BTC vs Everything

Asset	Change	BTC Edge
SPXS&P 500	+11.14%	-24.55%
QQQNASDAQ-100	+15.19%	-28.60%
XAUGold	-4.26%	-9.16%

Today’s Insight

Market Evidence

What Happened

The Day in 30 Seconds

BTC vs Everything

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