Market Cap
$1.63T
24h Volume
$29.05B
Dominance
59.4%
How Bitcoin fits into the macro picture
Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with the S&P 500 stands at 0.33, indicating it is not trading as pure tech-beta but is not fully decoupled either. The dollar held near flat today (-0.03%) while Bitcoin dropped 3%, suggesting the primary driver is the geopolitical oil shock rather than dollar strength alone. Gold declined 0.14% on the day, meaning Bitcoin underperformed gold on a risk-off session, which is consistent with Bitcoin still carrying some risk-asset classification in this macro regime. The September CPI release in 2 days is the nearest catalyst that could shift the yield and dollar backdrop.
With a 90-day BTC-to-S&P 500 correlation of 0.33, Bitcoin is tracking risk assets in a moderate regime. Today's sharper Bitcoin decline (-3.01%) relative to equities (-0.06% for the S&P 500) reflects crypto-specific selling from ETF outflows layered on top of the broader macro de-risking.
| Asset | 24h | YTD | BTC Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | -0.06% | +12.51% | -22.12% |
| QQQ | -0.71% | +20.01% | -29.62% |
| XAU | -0.14% | -11.81% |
Bitcoin reversed early gains as oil bounced back to over $92, and spot ETFs lost more than $600 million last week according to analysts. The combination of rising oil, elevated bond yields, and sustained ETF outflows has compressed near-term risk appetite, making the October 15 CPI print the clearest near-term resolution catalyst.
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Next briefing: 2 AM CET
| +2.20% |
| DXY | -0.03% | +5.74% | -15.35% |
| ETH | -4.81% | -0.98% | -8.63% |
| SOL | -7.61% | -2.30% | -7.32% |
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