Bitcoin's 90-day rolling correlation to the S&P 500 stands at 0.25, well below the 0.7 threshold where Bitcoin trades as pure tech-beta, suggesting it is increasingly trading on its own narrative rather than as a macro risk-asset proxy. Bitcoin's correlation to gold over the same period is 0.53, consistent with partial monetary-good classification. The DXY slipped 0.05% on the day, a marginal tailwind. PCE inflation data lands tomorrow and is the most immediate macro input, with a hotter print capable of pressuring risk assets into the same-day options expiry.

With a 90-day BTC-to-S&P 500 correlation of 0.25 and BTC outperforming equities by roughly 2 percentage points year-to-date on a 1-year basis, Bitcoin is not trading as pure risk-asset beta in the current regime.