Bitcoin's 90-day rolling correlation with the S&P 500 stands at 0.47, placing it in a moderate risk-asset regime where macro forces have meaningful but not dominant influence. The tech selloff that triggered today's decline, including a 10% drop in South Korea's Kospi, illustrates how BTC remains partially tethered to equity risk appetite at this correlation level. Deutsche Bank explicitly cited a hawkish Federal Reserve, ETF outflows, and capital rotation into AI as the three forces behind BTC's recent weakness to its lowest level since late 2024. PCE data on June 26 and the FOMC decision on July 29 are the next scheduled inflection points for the rate narrative.

BTC's 90-day correlation with the S&P 500 is 0.47 and with gold is 0.23, meaning it tracked the equity selloff today more than it behaved as a monetary hedge; gold fell only 0.88% versus BTC's 1.9% decline.