Bitcoin's 90-day rolling correlation with the S&P 500 stands at 0.45, while its correlation with gold is only 0.24, indicating BTC is trading closer to equities than to monetary goods in the current regime. The NASDAQ-100 is up 19% year-to-date while Bitcoin is down 29.4%, a 48-percentage-point gap that reflects capital rotating toward AI-adjacent equities rather than hard-money assets. Goldman Sachs revised its year-end gold forecast down to $4,900 citing doubt about near-term rate cuts, a signal that even traditional safe-haven assets face headwinds from a potentially more persistent rate environment. The PCE inflation release in 6 days and the FOMC meeting on July 29 are the two macro events most likely to resolve the rate-path uncertainty that is currently acting as a ceiling on Bitcoin.

With a 90-day BTC-to-S&P 500 correlation of 0.45, Bitcoin is tracking equities at moderate intensity. Today BTC gained 0.77% while the S&P 500 gained 1.08% and the NASDAQ-100 gained 2.48%, consistent with BTC underperforming equities in a risk-on session, in line with the current regime rather than a decoupling.