Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting confirmed the Federal Reserve's hawkish direction, with the policy statement emphasizing price stability and the accompanying projections taking a more restrictive tone. The result was a broad risk-off session: S&P 500 fell 1.21%, Gold dropped 1.10%, and the DXY rose 0.24%, with Bitcoin declining 2.01% in line with the risk-asset complex. The 90-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 sits at 0.47, meaning roughly half of Bitcoin's price variance is currently explained by equity market direction, and today's correlated selloff is consistent with that regime. With the next FOMC 41 days out and PCE inflation data due in 8 days, the macro calendar is sparse but consequential.

Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with the S&P 500 is 0.47 and with Gold is 0.20, confirming Bitcoin is trading more as a risk asset than a monetary hedge in the current regime. Today's synchronized decline across all three assets on a hawkish Fed signal is directionally consistent with a 0.47 equity correlation.