The Federal Reserve's next policy decision in 12 days will determine whether Bitcoin's geopolitical rally can sustain momentum above $78,000. Current macro conditions show a dollar that's barely changed, gold gaining modestly, and risk assets hitting records as Middle East tensions ease. The former Treasury Secretary's warning of a potential bond crash adds weight to Bitcoin's emerging narrative as a treasury alternative, especially with M2 money supply still elevated and fiscal deficits requiring continued financing. Iran's peace gesture removes a key oil premium while adding legitimacy to risk asset rallies.

Bitcoin's 0.54 correlation with the S&P 500 over 90 days suggests it's trading more like a risk asset than a safe haven, benefiting from the same geopolitical de-escalation driving stock market records.

No specific data on exchange reserves available in current search results

Long-term holders control 15.63M BTC or 78.5% of on-chain supply, signaling robust accumulation and reduced selling pressure from seasoned investors. Short-term holder supply stands at 4.32M BTC amid 91.79% of supply in profit, indicating potential for profit-taking if prices retrace. Circulating supply at 19.91M BTC with issuance rate declining post-halving reinforces scarcity dynamics for patient capital.