The Iran ceasefire provided temporary risk-on conditions that lifted Bitcoin alongside broader markets, though the effect proved fleeting as attention turns to upcoming inflation data and Fed policy clarity. Dollar weakness from geopolitical de-escalation supports risk assets broadly, while oil's collapse below $100 reduces inflationary pressures that could influence Fed dovishness. Bitcoin's correlation with traditional risk assets remains elevated, making it vulnerable to any macro disappointments despite improving institutional infrastructure.

Bitcoin underperformed both equity indices during the ceasefire rally, declining 1.06% versus S&P 500's 2.51% gain, suggesting risk-off sentiment persists within crypto markets despite positive developments.