Market Cap
$1.34T
24h Volume
$48.14B
Dominance
56.2%
Mixed flows in late March; March 24 saw $180M inflows led by BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC; March 25 recorded only $7.81M inflows amid strong sell pressure; March overall shows 73% decline to $890M versus February's $3.3B
Aggregated from public reports
How Bitcoin fits into the macro picture
Rising Treasury yields near 4.5% and persistent geopolitical tensions are tightening financial conditions, pressuring risk assets including Bitcoin. Oil-driven inflation concerns from the Iran conflict challenge the Fed's dovish pivot expectations, potentially extending the restrictive monetary policy cycle. The dollar's strength and bond yield surge create headwinds for alternative stores of value, though Bitcoin's relative outperformance versus precious metals suggests evolving institutional demand patterns.
Bitcoin is trading with risk assets but showing greater resilience than traditional safe havens like gold, indicating a potential shift in its macro role during geopolitical stress.
| Asset | 24h | YTD | BTC Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | -1.74% | -6.66% | -18.97% |
| NDX | -2.38% | -7.69% | -17.94% |
| XAU | +1.05% | -5.48% | -20.15% |
| DXY | +0.09% | +3.09% | -28.72% |
| ETH | -3.19% | -17.81% | -7.82% |
| SOL | -5.32% | -21.03% | -4.60% |
US Bitcoin ETFs experienced $171 million in outflows Thursday as geopolitical tensions with Iran intensified and Treasury yields approached one-year highs. Despite short-term selling pressure, ETF flows over the past month remain positive at $2.5 billion, suggesting institutional accumulation continues beneath the surface volatility.
What credible voices are saying
Bitcoin is in a deep value zone near the bottom based on historical data and mining cost of production around $50,000-$60,000, but price won't rise immediately. Quantum computing poses a major risk that Bitcoin developers haven't prioritized, potentially preventing new all-time highs until addressed. Nearly 200 Bitcoin treasury companies are unsustainable and may consolidate or fail.
Live broadcast on MEXC news | 2026-03-13
Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026 due to dollar weakness, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and strength in stores of value like gold and crypto. A supportive regulatory environment including a market structure bill and broader ETF adoption will drive this upside. Weakening fiat currencies will boost demand for Bitcoin as a digital store of value.
Grayscale 2026 digital asset outlook and CNBC interview | 2026-03
$60,000 is a crucial level for Bitcoin, followed by $50,000; a drop below could lead to complete wipeout as markets hang by a thread. Institutions avoid chasing assets dropping 20% monthly, so best case is sideways action to find footing. Narratives driving Bitcoin's value have repeatedly failed throughout its history.
Daily Forex Bitcoin Forecast for March 2026 | 2026-03
Coinbase partnered with Better Home & Finance to enable homebuyers to use Bitcoin or USDC as collateral for down payments on Fannie Mae-backed mortgages. This represents the first major government-sponsored enterprise integration of crypto assets into traditional mortgage financing.
CoinDesk
The federally chartered crypto bank became the first US institution to offer compliant Tron custody services, enabling institutional access to TRX trading and staking. The integration brings a top stablecoin chain into the US regulatory perimeter for qualified investors.
CoinDesk
An Australian court ordered Binance Australia Derivatives to pay $6.9 million after the exchange misclassified retail clients and exposed them to high-risk crypto derivatives products. The penalty reflects regulatory focus on client protection and proper risk categorization in crypto markets.
Cointelegraph
The UK imposed sanctions on Xinbi, a Chinese-language crypto marketplace that allegedly processed over $19.9 billion in illicit flows between 2021 and 2025. The action targets financial infrastructure supporting Southeast Asian scam compounds that defraud victims globally.
The Block
Get this briefing in your inbox every morning
Momentum (RSI)
Neutral zone42.0
Measures buying/selling pressure. Below 30 may signal a buying opportunity; above 70 may mean a pullback is due.
50-Day Average
$68,945
Short-term trend
200-Day Average
$91,536
Long-term trend
30-Day Low
$66,000
Support level
30-Day High
$72,000
Resistance level
Price has broken below the 50-day moving average and approaches key support near $66,000 with RSI suggesting oversold conditions may be developing. The gap between price and the 200-day moving average reflects extended correction territory.
Security and infrastructure metrics from Mempool.space
Hashrate
990 EH/s
Block Height
942,457
Difficulty
133.8T
Mempool
30,633 tx
9.6 MB
Next Halving
107,543 blocks remaining
48.8%
On-chain scarcity signals
Spot market flows have turned constructive with Binance and aggregate exchange CVD transitioning to buy-dominant regimes; Coinbase sell pressure has materially eased, indicating reduced exchange reserves
Long-term holder supply continues trending lower but at a materially slowed rate of decline versus aggressive Q3-Q4 2025 distribution, with net realized profits cooling to 12.8k BTC per week from cycle peaks above 100k. Price is testing dense LTH supply cluster at $93k-$110k accumulated in Q2 2025, where absorption of distribution is key for trend reversal. Maturation supply must outpace LTH spending to sustain rallies, as seen in prior recovery phases.
CPI Release
March inflation data critical for Fed policy trajectory
2026-04-10
Q1 Earnings Season
Bitcoin corporate treasury updates from public companies
2026-04-14
FOMC Meeting
Federal Reserve monetary policy decision amid rising inflation concerns
2026-04-29
Bitcoin Halving (Block 1,050,000)
Next Bitcoin mining reward reduction, 107,543 blocks remaining
TBD