A massive $14B options expiry this Friday has $75,000 emerging as the max pain level and likely price magnet. Market makers hedging their positions could drive BTC toward this level in the coming days.
- Bitcoin steadied above $71K as oil fell below $100 on US 15-point Iran peace plan
- $14B options expiry Friday points to $75K as price magnet
- Bernstein calls bitcoin bottom, sees $150K target for 2026
- Morgan Stanley pushing Bitcoin, says Wall Street is not chasing FOMO
Market Snapshot
Market Cap
$1.42T
24h Volume
$40.60B
Dominance
56.5%
Institutional Flows
ETF Net Flow (Daily)
+$185M
Total AUM: $98.0B
Net inflows have resumed after a brief pause last week. BlackRock IBIT continues to lead daily flows. Total spot ETF AUM approaching $100B milestone.
- Bernstein initiates $150K BTC price target, sees 226% upside for Strategy shares
- Morgan Stanley expanding Bitcoin product offerings to wealth management clients
- DV8 becomes first Bitcoin treasury company in Southeast Asia
Aggregated from public reports
Macro Context
How Bitcoin fits into the macro picture
Oil dropping below $100 on US-Iran peace plan talks is easing inflation fears that had pressured risk assets. The Fed remains in wait-and-see mode at 5.25-5.50%. M2 money supply continues expanding globally as ECB and BOJ maintain accommodative stances, providing a favorable liquidity backdrop for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is showing resilience relative to equities, gaining 0.39% while the S&P 500 fell 0.32%. The decoupling trend continues as BTC outperforms the S&P by nearly 20 percentage points YTD.
BTC vs Everything
| Asset | 24h | YTD | BTC Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | -0.32% | -4.80% | +19.80% |
| XAU | +0.85% | +15.30% | -0.30% |
| DXY | -0.15% | -3.80% | +18.80% |
Top Stories
Expert Insights
What credible voices are saying
Bitcoin appears to have bottomed near $60,000. We see a path to $150,000 by year end, driven by ETF inflows, corporate treasury adoption, and post-halving supply dynamics. Strategy shares offer 226% upside from current levels.
Bernstein research note via The Block | 2026-03-25
We are expanding Bitcoin and crypto offerings to our wealth management clients. This is not about chasing FOMO. It is about building proper allocation frameworks for an asset class that institutional investors increasingly view as permanent.
Bitcoin Magazine report | 2026-03-25
Global liquidity expansion remains the dominant driver. Bitcoin tends to perform well when M2 is expanding, and we are seeing synchronized expansion across all major central banks. The post-halving supply reduction amplifies this effect.
The Investors Podcast | 2026-03-22
Adoption Tracker
DV8 secured a digital asset license, becoming the first Bitcoin treasury company in Southeast Asia. The move signals growing corporate Bitcoin adoption beyond North America and Europe.
Bitcoin Magazine
US banks extracted $434B in fees from Americans in 2025, strengthening the case for Bitcoin as an alternative financial system with transparent, predictable costs and no middlemen.
Bitcoin Magazine
Bhutan moved $37M in BTC as on-chain data shows accelerated selling from the nation's mining-derived reserves. The country has been mining Bitcoin using hydroelectric power since 2019.
The Block
Regulatory & Legal
Pro-Bitcoin Senator Cynthia Lummis will speak at Bitcoin 2026, signaling continued legislative support for Bitcoin-friendly policy. Lummis has been a leading voice for the proposed Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and clearer regulatory frameworks.
Bitcoin Magazine
South Korea recorded $60B in crypto outflows to overseas platforms and private wallets in H2 2025. Regulators are studying whether tighter controls are needed, which could impact Korean Bitcoin trading volumes.
The Block
Get this briefing in your inbox every morning
Technical Signals
Momentum (RSI)
Neutral zone48.2
Measures buying/selling pressure. Below 30 may signal a buying opportunity; above 70 may mean a pullback is due.
50-Day Average
$74,800
Short-term trend
200-Day Average
$68,500
Long-term trend
30-Day Low
$67,500
Support level
30-Day High
$75,000
Resistance level
Price sits above the 200-day moving average at $68,500, a positive sign for the longer-term trend. RSI near 48 suggests neutral momentum with room for upside. The $75K options expiry level is the key resistance to watch this week.
Network Fundamentals
Security and infrastructure metrics from Mempool.space
Hashrate
892 EH/s
Block Height
942,015
Difficulty
113.8T
Mempool
27,783 tx
17.5 MB
Next Halving
107,985 blocks remaining
26.9%
Supply Dynamics
On-chain scarcity signals
Long-Term Holders (>1 year)
69.8%
Exchange reserves remain near multi-year lows. Bhutan sold $37M in BTC from its mining reserves, but overall net flows off exchanges continue.
Nearly 70% of Bitcoin supply has not moved in over a year. Post-halving issuance of 3.125 BTC per block means only about 450 BTC are mined daily, while institutional demand through ETFs alone often exceeds this amount.
Upcoming Events
FOMC Minutes Release
Minutes from the March FOMC meeting, critical for reading Fed stance on rate trajectory.
2026-03-26
PCE Inflation Data
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge. A below-consensus read could spark a risk-on rally.
2026-03-28
$14B Options Expiry
Massive Bitcoin options expiry with $75K as the max pain level and price magnet.
2026-03-28
Q1 GDP Estimate
First estimate of Q1 2026 GDP growth. Weak print could accelerate rate cut expectations.
2026-04-02
Next FOMC Decision
Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Markets pricing in potential rate cut.
2026-05-06